Notebook Market Faces 13.6% Shipment Drop in 2026

The global notebook market is expected to slow sharply in 2026, with TrendForce forecasting worldwide shipments to fall 13.6% year over year to 159 million units. The market research firm attributes the decline to higher notebook prices, weaker replacement demand, and rising manufacturing costs across the PC industry.

TrendForce estimates global notebook shipments will reach 184 million units in 2025, up from 177 million units in 2024. However, that growth is expected to reverse next year as manufacturers begin passing higher production costs on to consumers, making buyers more hesitant to replace existing laptops.

According to TrendForce, Apple’s recent MacBook price increases have also changed pricing expectations across the premium notebook market. The firm says higher MacBook prices make it more difficult for notebook brands to absorb rising production costs without increasing retail prices, reinforcing expectations that laptops will become more expensive.

The higher pricing could narrow the gap between MacBooks and premium Windows laptops, encouraging some price-sensitive buyers to consider Windows alternatives. TrendForce, however, believes the impact will be limited because notebook prices are rising across the market while replacement demand continues to weaken.

Despite the broader market slowdown, Apple is expected to remain one of the strongest performers. TrendForce forecasts MacBook shipments of approximately 23.1 million units in 2026, with full-year growth still expected to remain in double digits.

The firm attributes the performance to strong first-half sales of the MacBook Neo, continued upgrades to Apple Silicon, and the company’s integrated hardware and software ecosystem. It also notes that further price increases could eventually reduce demand if consumers become more price-sensitive.

Notebook manufacturers are also facing mounting cost pressures across the supply chain. TrendForce says the rapid expansion of AI server deployments continues to consume semiconductor production capacity, driving up prices for memory, power management chips, and raw materials including gold and copper.

At the same time, improved availability of mainstream notebook processors during the second quarter of 2026 allowed manufacturers to accelerate orders and ship more systems earlier than expected. While that helped boost shipments in the first half of the year, TrendForce expects the early inventory build-up to reduce demand in the second half as purchases that would normally occur later in the year have already been brought forward.

TrendForce expects notebook brands to face a more challenging market throughout 2026 as higher production costs, softer replacement demand, and rising retail prices continue to weigh on global shipments.

Source: TrendForce Press